ACTIVITY #1
10. This section discusses the fundamentals of economics. I have seen thus far that economics is almost like a puzzle, it is not complete unless you have every counterpart. There are quite a few pieces to the economic puzzle. In order for everything to correspond there has to be the correct information that is input.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an index of prices used to measure the change of the cost of basic goods and services in comparison with a fixed base period. CPI is a factor used when dealing with GDP. This index reflects changes in prices, which, depending on the growth or reduction, reflects the status of the GDP. The whole point of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics doing a report on CPI and inflation was to regulate the numbers in which they would be dealing. For example, it would be kind of hard to determine how much you had to tax the nation if you did not have the increments of information like the report details. The following are some of the parts of the information needed to make sure that equilibrium holds true.
Unemployment is a significant part because it is vital to know the amount of people who are working versus those who are not to make sure everything will add up. The formal definition of unemployment is “the number of adults (16 years or older) who are willing and able to work and who are actively looking for work but have not found a job”. There are many different kinds of unemployment; a few types are frictional, structural, cyclical and even seasonal unemployment.
Another important part of economics is inflation. In order for the economy to “balance” out there is a need for inflation or in some cases deflation. When the average prices of goods and service seem high, inflation occurs to equal out the difference. The same thing happens with the opposite as goods and services go down, deflation occurs.
National Income Accounting uses Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to make sure that total output will equal income. GDP is a basic measure of an economies size. Per Capita GDP is the total GDP divided by the number of citizens also called average GDP which reflects the standard of living. GDP deals with two sides, supply and demand. To calculate GDP you must add: consumer spending plus the investment made by industry plus net exports plus government spending.
Economist must put the pieces of the puzzle together by calculating inflation, CPI, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, including every little detail to make sure everything is intact. This is the job that countries face to make sure that the economy will continue. A puzzle missing one piece is not complete.
ACTIVITY #2
1. I believe I was successful in balancing the budget because I continued to decrease the deficit.
2. For every cut or addition that you make you have to be aware of how it is going to affect the budget as a whole. It’s not as easy as it may appear because one adjustment can throw the balance off.
3. Yes, because it gave you a general idea of the amount with which you would be working.
4. The first time I created a simulated budget, No, my perception did not match reality. Seeing the dollar amounts, what percentage, and how much went into each category helped create a more concrete understanding in the budget.
5. While creating the simulated budget, not all of my cuts were realistic. For example, I cut social security which would in reality be very unlikely considering this is money set aside for the security of our citizens in their old age. Before cutting certain areas it is important to be aware of how significantly it benefits the nation. This poses problems because in order to find a solution you need to monitor the problem over the course of a few years to make sure that one year was not a fluke.
6. Developing a national budget is one of the most important issues that economists must address. The government handles this multifaceted math problem by using a method called fiscal policy. Implemented by Congress, the government works to influence the nation’s spending, employment, and price levels through the use of government spending and taxes. The National Budget Simulator is based entirely on the concept of fiscal policy. In order to control money supply and interest rates, economists adjust government expenditures and taxation. This is precisely what the budget simulator demonstrates, allowing students or anyone else to gain a better understanding of how the nation’s financial decisions are made.
When dealing with matters that affect a mass population, every decision must be made with careful deliberation and in the best interests of the people as a whole. Government officials are professionals who come to what they deem the most effective conclusions possible. Despite this fact, there will still always be those that are unsatisfied with governmental decisions. This phenomenon is known as
Public Choice Theory, which is directed towards the study of politics based on economic principles.
Government deficit is another aspect discussed in the text. A deficit is the remaining of government spending over government revenues during a given period of time. In other words the government has spent more than it had earned in revenue. When a nation spends more money than it has, it creates a National Debt. If the National Debt is increasing, then the nation has to borrow money to pay that dept, and there must be a deficit. This occurred a few times when I tried my hand at the National Budget Simulator. Cutting back the spending eventually showed that if you cut the budget to where it is not spending as much as you are earning, then you will decrease the deficit.
ACTIVITY #3
Although these estimates are based on information obtained from prior years, it is still an estimate which means if any crisis occurs I will not be held responsible. Also, the information given does not date to the year 2008 which would provide the most accurate analysis for the following year. That being said, I am confident in reporting that given the following information, the following events will occur.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is rising in the first quarter of 2006. I predict that in the fourth quarter of 2009, there will be an increase in the CPI due to inflation. Business Inventories and Sales have been steadily climbing since 2004. Since it has shown a steady growth in inventory and sales, it will continue to grow as long as the inventory and sales ratio balances out. Because the money supply seems to be increasing, it will lead to the growth of nominal GDP. The Stock Index shows that it is increasing steadily, which entails a strong increase of customer spending and business investment.
For every plus there is a minus; this principle relates to many areas, including economics. Housing and light-weight vehicles are just two that appear to be decreasing on the graphs. Housing starts will potentially decrease from 1.47 to 1.45 million which means that people are suffering financially and cannot afford to build or begin building houses. Light-weight vehicles are also decreasing because of the CPI increase. Meaning, if the consumer price index rises then people will focus on spending their money on needs and cut back on wants, such as light-weight vehicles. Also, while the Yield on 10-year Treasury Bond is down, it seems to be gradually climbing which will not have much effect for the next few years.
Durable goods, retail sales and Industrial Production are all positive but remaining constant. According to the advanced report on durable goods, unfilled orders are rising, shipments are down, new orders seem to be at a stand point. Another subcategory that is at a standpoint is retail sales. The important thing about retail sales is that it represents almost two-thirds of the Gross Domestic Product. With Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization barely afloat but still positive and representing about twenty percent of the GDP, it is safe to assume that the GDP will minutely fluctuate.
Given the information, I strongly believe that the GDP will remain almost constant. However, if any change does occur, the GDP will reflect a slight increase, showing that retail sales and industrial production/capacity utilization is at a constant and that makes up roughly 86% of the total GDP. That being said, the economy will not show much change. The change that will occur will be small increases in the GDP and the CPI.
ACTIVITY #4
CRITICAL THINKING ESSAY
PROJECT