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UNIT 8: CONCLUSION
Since 1800, the human population has grown from one billion to six billion people. Over the next half century, experts predict that number will rise to nine billion. Look at the quick presentation on population growth by clicking on the following link.
Although population is only one of the five themes we study in human geography, by now you should be able to see the impact population characteristics can have on all other aspects of humanity. For your project, you're going to investigate population growth, specifically how long it takes the populations of different countries to double.
Let's begin by reviewing a couple of basic concepts with which you should be familiar.
For example, if a town had 75 people at the beginning of 2010 and 100 people at the beginning of 2011, what would its growth rate be for the year?
First … how many new people does the town have?
100 at start of 2011 – 75 at start of 2010 = 25 new people (increase in population)
Look again at the definition of growth rate:
the increase in a population during a period of time expressed as a percentage of the population at the start of that time
So 25 (the increase in population) is what percent of 75 (the starting population)?
25 (increase in pop) ÷ 75 (starting pop) = 0.33
0.33 X 100 = 33%
The growth rate for the year is 33%.
A country's growth rate can have a profound effect on the country as a whole. Sometimes, though, it's hard to visualize what a specific growth rate means. You feel like 50% is a high growth rate but can you really get a feel for how high from the number alone? You feel liket 1% is a low growth rate but can you really get a feel for how low from the number alone?
However, we can use a country's growth rate to determine the country's doubling time … a figure that gives us a better feel for how quickly the country's population is growing.
A country's doubling time is the number of years it takes for the country’s population to increase by 100% (or double) at its current rate of natural increase.
Does a 2% annual growth rate sound low? To most people it does. Does a doubling time of 35 years (the country's population doubles every 35 years) sound high? Definitely! Yet those two figures describe the same thing … a country with a low-sounding 2% growth rate will double its population every 35 years.
You are going to begin your project by using the growth rates of 8 countries to calculate the doubling time of each. (Later, you'll look at what those numbers mean.) First, though, I need to teach you how to calculate doubling time.
To simplify things a little, I have standardized the figures with which you’ll be working. 1. Rather than use the huge numbers that are the starting populations for the world's countries, I have set the starting population for every country at 50 individuals. (The population size does not affect the doubling time.) 2. Rather than calculate the annual population year after year, you will use 10-year compounded growth rates. (The 10-year growth rate is based on annual growth rates from 2003 from the US Bureau of Census International Database.) 3. Although in reality a country's growth rate changes (increasing or decreasing) from year to year, we will assume each country's growth rate will be constant (the same figure every 10-year period).
[Trust me! This will all make sense in a minute!]
Calculating Doubling Time: An Example Remember that you are going to calculate the doubling times for 8 countries by yourself. In order to do that, there is a simple process you need to learn. The following chart and the instructions below the chart use Venezuela as an example of how to use a country's population growth rate to calculate the country's doubling time. Study the chart and instructions until you understand how the process works. (This may seem a little overwhelming at first but if you take your time and work out the process, you'll see it's really quite simple.)
Above is a blank chart for Venezuela like the chart you will start with for each of your 8 countries. Below is a completed chart for Venezuela. Compare the blank chart & the completed chart as you read these instructions to help you understand how the process works. I used each step in these instructions, to fill out the completed chart below.
Calculating Doubling Time for 8 Countries Now it's your turn. Make certain you understand the example above. If you become confused while calculating the doubling times for your countries, go back to the example to remind yourself how the process works.
The first part of your project is to calculate the doubling time for each of the following 8 countries.
Australia Chad China India Mayotte Saudi Arabia Thailand United States
Use the WORLD GROWTH RATES link at the top of this page to find the 10-year growth rate for each of your countries. You may also use the DOUBLING TIME CHART link at the top of this page for a blank chart that you can print or copy-and-paste into a Word document. (You will need one chart for each country.) If you prefer, you can use scratch paper instead of a chart. The chart's only purpose is to help you remember the steps in calculating a doubling time. If you don't need it, that's fine.
For each of the 8 countries, use that country's 10-year growth rate, an initial population of 50 and the process used in the example above to calculate that country's doubling time. In the example above, we found that "the doubling time for Venezuela is 50 years." You should be able to make a similar (and accurate) statement for each of your 8 countries as shown below.
The doubling time for Australia is ___ years. The doubling time for Chad is ___ years. The doubling time for China is ___ years. The doubling time for India is ___ years. The doubling time for Mayotte is ___ years. The doubling time for Saudi Arabia is ___ years. The doubling time for Thailand is ___ years. The doubling time for the United States is ___ years.
Reflection After you have calculated the doubling time for all of your countries, think about your results and the differences between the 8 countries. How would increasing or decreasing the growth rate affect how quickly the population size increases or decreases? What factors do you think affect growth rates, causing a country's growth rate to increase or decrease?
Based on the figures given in the WORLD GROWTH RATES lists, Greenland & South Africa have the lowest 10-year compounded growth rate (0.001) and it would take 6,890 years for their populations to double. As you can see, that's a slow growth rate! However, Montserrat's population, with the highest growth rate (0.553), will double every 20 years. No matter how small a population that country started with, at that rate it would be facing massive population numbers in a relatively short period of time.
If you were the leader of a low-growth-rate country such as Greenland, what concerns would you have about your country's growth rate? What do you think are the possible environmental, cultural, political and economic impacts on people in low-growth-rate populations? Low growth rates may have both positive and negative effects.
If you were the leader of a high-growth-rate country such as Montserrat, what concerns would you have about your country's growth rate? What do you think are the possible environmental, cultural, political and economic impacts on people in high-growth-rate populations? High growth rates may have both positive and negative effects.
Remember what I wrote at the beginning of this project … Although population is only one of the five themes we study in human geography, by now you should realize the impact population characteristics can have on a country's physical environment, culture, politics and economy … and, indeed, on the entire world population. It is a critical factor in every aspect of human existence.
Before you begin your summary below, I suggest you review the assigned material from previous units and take the time to create a complete picture in your mind of the degree to which population characteristics can affect everything else. Imagine living in a country with a growth rate as low as Greenland's. How would your day-to-day life be different - growing up, now and in the future? What if you lived in a country with a growth rate as high as Montserrat's. How would your day-to-day life be different - growing up, now and in the future? If you have a good picture in your mind of both situations before you begin writing your summary, you'll find it much easier to complete.
When you have finished your project, write a project summary that includes the following components.
A NOTE OF CAUTION: This is a 20-point comprehensive assignment ... the detail & thoroughness of your response should reflect that additional weight.
By the deadline shown in the Course Schedule on the main page of the syllabus:
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Copyright © 1996 Amy S. Glenn |
