POLITICAL Socialization    PUBLIC Opinion    THE Media

INTEREST Groups    POLITICAL Parties    Voting BEHAVIOR    CAMPAIGNS & Elections

Political

Socialization

Political socialization is the process by which people acquire a set of political attitudes and form opinions about social issues.

Agents of Political Socialization

Family                     Neighbors

Peer group               Career

School                    Co-Workers

Religion                   Community organizations

Media                     Life stage

Higher education

Political values change almost throughout your life. The most important influences on your political values, however, found during your early life. Your family, school, community (religious organizations, youth groups, civic activities) and your peer groups have most profound effects. It is your family that gives you that basic attitude toward government that you will carry with you throughout your life.

                                                                                                                -from National Election Study data

Family is single most important factor in your political socialization. However, throughout your life, your political values influenced by college, adult peers (workers, friends, neighbors, spouses), political leaders, media and your political experiences. Too, maturation process alone will affect your political values. Until you have children, you will care little for public school issues. Until you own a home, you will care little for property tax issues. Political socialization, to a greater or lesser degree, will continue throughout your life.

The opinions you form exist at three basic levels.

1.      values & beliefs

most abstract, broad principles

Sam Huntington – liberty equality, individualism, rule of law

2.      political orientation

translation of values & beliefs into a systematic way of assessing the political environment

partisanship (psychological attachment to a party) & ideology (consistent set of values & beliefs about the purpose and scope of government)

3.      political preferences

attitudes about specific issues / candidates

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Public Opinion

Public opinion is the collected attitudes of citizens on a given issue or question.

Governments tend to react to public opinion. The fact that a public official serves at the pleasure of the voters usually tends to make that official sensitive to public opinion.

American public opinion has some unique characteristics.

The public's attitudes toward a given government policy vary over time.

The majority of American voters stand somewhere near the middle ground on most issues in American politics.

Americans tend to fall into one of four categories based on how knowledgeable they are about politics & government.

opinion leaders       29%

informed public       34%

uninformed public    23%

politically clueless    13%

American citizens are more than willing to express opinions about things of which they are totally ignorant.

American public opinion is pragmatic, rather than ideological.

We may often talk theoretically but we act practically. That does not mean we don’t have political ideologies but it does mean we probably aren’t ideologues in the true sense of the word.

I. public opinion polls - instruments by which we discover the public’s opinion on an issue at a given point in time

The population is the group of people you’re interested in studying.

The sample is that part of the population considered to represent the entire population.

A poll is a type of survey or inquiry into public opinion conducted by interviewing a representative sample of the population.

population vs. sample / target population vs. random sample

A random sample is the result of a process that selects a sample from the larger population entirely by chance.

A poll’s sampling error tells you how much confidence you can have in the findings of the poll. The smaller the sampling error is, the more confidence you can have that the findings are accurate. The larger the sample is in relation to the population, the smaller the error. In general, you should look for a sampling error of ±3% … any poll with an error larger than ±5% is probably not worth the paper it’s printed on.

Properly conducted scientific polls are highly accurate and the data generated by an opinion poll are used to measure and analyze public opinion.

SLOPs (self-selected listener opinion polls), CRAPS (computerized response audience polling), intercept polls, FRUG polls (fund raising under the guise of polls) and push polls are neither scientific nor accurate. In fact, push polls only pretend to be polls in order to "push" you into believing something, e.g. "If you found out that the local community college has been overcharging students for their tuition, would you continue to attend your local college?" Push polls don't really care about your opinion ... they're trying to get you to believe their opinion.

Real Clear Politics   

SURVEY USA FAQs

Polling Report
Gallup
Rasmussen
Zogby

II. Qualities of Public Opinion

1.      Direction

a.      positive

b.      negative

2.      Shape

a.      normal curve

b.      bimodal

c.      skewed

3.      Stability / Continuity

a.      amount of change in shape over time

4.      Intensity

a.      strong

b.      mild

c.      neutral

 

Be a Critical Observer of Polls

1. Who Was Interviewed?
Generally speaking, the accuracy of a poll depends upon the degree to which the characteristics of the people being interviewed is really similar to those of the group they are supposed to represent. For example, the polling of sixteen-year-olds to predict the outcome of an election would be very questionable since they cannot vote.

Also, as a general rule, the greater the number of people interviewed, the more likely the prediction will be accurate. Everything else being equal, an election poll of 100,000 out of two million voters is more likely to produce accurate results than a poll of 1,000 out of the same number. It is important to point out that large, national polling organizations have small national samples of under 2,000 that predict quite accurately for the entire electorate.

Lastly, those interviewed should have been selected in a random fashion. This is usually done to avoid or lessen the possibility of allowing any "unaccounted for" bias or characteristics ... of those being interviewed ... to influence the results. The accuracy of a poll designed to sample the views of all registered Republicans, for example, would definitely be suspect and have a conservative bias if it interviewed only contributors to Barry Goldwater's unsuccessful presidential campaign of 1964.

2. Under What Conditions Were The Interviews Conducted?
Generally speaking, unclear, biased, or emotionally charged questions will produce misleading answers and weaken the accuracy of the results of a poll. Questions such as ... How do you feel about candidate X? or, You are planning to vote for candidate Y, are you not? would be suspect.

Also, if the people being polled are asked to choose from a given set of responses in answering a question, there must be an acceptable number of alternatives from which to choose. For example, suppose those being polled are required to respond to a question ... either "yes" or "no." This practice would eliminate the possibility that some of the people may truly be "undecided" and consequently distort the accuracy of the poll's results.

Finally, polls conducted by telephone or through the mails generally do not tend to be as reliable as personal interviews. This is largely due to the fact that the former measures are not as likely to be able to control for who really participates in the poll, the number who respond, and possible misinterpretation of the questions.

3. When Was the Poll Conducted?
It should also be noted that the results of a poll are representative ... however accurate ... of the preferences, views and feelings of a particular group of people at a particular point in time. As a general rule, the more current the poll, the more likely it is to produce meaningful and useful results. A summer poll regarding who should be elected president in 2004, for example, is not likely to be as accurate as a poll taken during election week of the actual election.

4. Who Conducted the Poll?
Past reputation and performance can also help an individual determine the validity of the results of a poll. Generally speaking, "novice" pollsters are not likely to be able to compete with professional polling organizations with their large staff's, seemingly unlimited resources, and sophisticated computer equipment. In addition, polls conducted by groups with an obvious interest in the results should be held suspect until proven otherwise. Finally, past performance records of a polling group might be useful in determining the organization's credibility and reliability.

5. What was the Percentage of Error?
Polling organizations should also indicate what the potential for error of their poll is. Based on the size of their sample it is statistically possible to do so and indicates reliability to the reader.

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The Media

I. Media-Politics Process

Information seldom full or complete

Candidates exploit issues in advertisements

Information becomes altered

Information becomes short, simple & highly thematic

Leads to the increasing importance of political advertising

 

Media Effect on Politics

Positives                                                                    Negatives

Increased knowledge                                             Increased voter skepticism

Agenda setting                                                     Reduced choice of candidates

Candidate orientation                                             Politics as a game for the financial elite

Candidate issue positions

Media technology gives candidates tools

Media help candidates identify "hot" issues

 

 

5 Ways New Media Are Changing Politics

II. Network News Coverage

More negative than ads

One-third of candidate messages are negative

Two-thirds of news coverage is negative

Structural bias in media

Early negative coverage is hard to shake

Networks shape sound bites from stories

Emphasizes the dramatic

No meaningful context

III. Political Advertising

Convey information that will evoke positive feelings about the candidate

Information can be positive or negative

Define candidate & issue positions

Define opponents

Candidate controls content

Candidate controls the appeal

Stress image and issues

Measure citizens’ responses

Reinforce long-held predispositions about issues, personalities, political parties

Increasingly negative

positive ads have to run again and again and again to stick

negative ads move poll numbers in three or four days

system rewards those who win — more important than voter turnout

What does the research say about negative advertising?

Negative ads do not increase participation

Negative ads reduce positive attitudes toward candidates and the race

Attack advertising extracts a toll on participation — voting drops by 2.5% with negative ad, increases by same amount with a positive ad, strongest effect on independents

Provide valuable information

Reveal information about candidate's strengths or weaknesses

Stimulate base into action

More knowledgeable voters are most likely to pay attention to ads

Negative ads are given more weight

Negative ads produce stronger emotional effects than positive ads

Political Advertising Strategies

1. Appeal to Authority

cite an authority who is not qualified to have an expert opinion

cite an expert when other experts disagree on the issue

cite an expert by hearsay only

2. Appeal to Force

predict dangerous outcomes if follow a course other than yours

3. Appeal to Popularity / Bandwagon

hold an opinion to be valuable because large numbers of people support it

4. Attacking the Person

attack the person making the argument, not the argument

attack the person making the argument because of those with whom he associates

insinuate that the person making the argument would stand to gain by it

5. False Dilemma

offer a limited number of options — usually two — when there are really more choices

6. Hasty Generalization

use a sample too small to support the conclusion

7. Slippery Slope

threaten a series of increasingly dire consequences from taking a different course of action

A PRIMER ON PERSUASION & INFLUENCE   

PROPAGANDA CRITIC

AD CRITIC

The 30 Second Candidate

the living room candidate

IV. Trends

Fragmentation of audiences and outlets

Shift from networks toward more diverse sources — such as radio, local TV, Internet

Tabloidization of news

Fierce commercial pressures

Permanent campaigns — leading to constant polls, focus groups and electronic town meetings

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Interest Groups

An interest group is an organization of individuals with similar views that tries to influence government to respond favorably to those views.

The principal purpose of interest group activity is to influence government to respond to the group’s objectives.

I. Types of Interest Groups

            A. membership organizations

                1) business (dominant)

                2) agriculture

                3) professional organizations (doctors, lawyers, teachers)

                4) labor unions (weak in Texas, a right-to-work state)

                5) ethnic (NAACP, LULAC)

                6) religious organizations

            B. non-membership organizations

                individual businesses not part of a membership organization

            C. local governments

            D Functions of Interest Groups

                They provide a vehicle for grassroots political participation.

                They channel information on key issues to the general public.

                They monitor the performance of federal officials and programs.

II. Techniques Used by Interest Groups

            A. lobbying

communication by a representative of an interest group directed at a government official to influence the official’s decisions

                1) legislature -providing information, communications with constituents, filing bills

                2) executive agencies -influence implementation of laws

                3) types of lobbyists

                    -contract

                    -in-house

                    -government (local)

                    -citizen

                    -private individual

            B. electioneering

                1) donate $ to campaign

                2) media strategy (TV ads, newspaper ads)

                3) raise $ for candidates

                4) campaign volunteers

            C. grassroots lobbying — shape public opinion

III. Interest Group Power

            A. Money - oil and gas industry

            B. membership — strength in numbers, teachers

            C. hire former legislators — former members know system and the current members

            D. distribution of across state

                1) wide distribution — strong

                2) narrow or limited distribution — weaker

IV. Comparing Interest Group Power Across States

            A. diversity

                1) more diverse economy — more groups, less influence

                2) less diverse economy — few dominant groups, more influence

            B. party strength

                1) weak two-party competition — strong groups

                2) strong two-party system — weak groups

            C. structure of state government

                1) decentralized executive structure — strong groups 

                    -iron triangle (legislative committee, executive agency, interest group)

                2) centralized executive structure — weaker groups

Open Secrets

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Political Parties

Political party — A broadly based coalition that attempts to gain control of the government by winning elections

The principal purpose of political party activity is to gain control of government by winning elections.

I. 50 Two-Party Systems

            A. state parties are independent of national organizations

                1) few national offices, many state offices

                2) common goals and similar issues, but separate organizations

            B. state party ideology

                1) competitive vs. noncompetitive states

                2) policy-relevant vs. non-policy-relevant states

                3) Texas

                      -not competitive, Republican dominance

                      -not policy relevant—old southern Democrats similar to new Republicans

                      -traditional culture, small government, low taxes

The majority of American voters stand somewhere near the middle ground on many issues of American politics.

II. Party Realignment in Texas

            A. One-party Democratic

1) end of Reconstruction through 1970s
2) southern Democratic hostility to party of Lincoln, Reconstruction, Yankees
3) conservative Democrats dominate party—landowners and merchants
4) no competition for almost a century
5) Yellow Dog Democrats

            B. a very gradual realignment from top to bottom

                1) 1950s presidential elections—Eisenhower over Stevenson

                2) 1961—first Republican senator since Reconstruction (Tower)

                3) 1970s—first Republican governor since Reconstruction (Clements)

                4) 1980s—Democratic defectors (Gramm)

                5) 1990s—Republican dominance ushered in by Bush

                6) 21st century Republicans taking traditional Democratic county offices

Probably the single factor most responsible for Republican growth in Texas after WWII was
the increased size and prosperity of the Texas middle and upper classes.

            C. voter profiles

                Republicans                                           Democrats

                suburbs                                                urban areas

                younger                                                older

                new Texans                                           old and native Texans

                white                                                   minorities

                Protestant                                            Catholic         

            D. de-alignment and the declining influence of parties

1) more independent voters
2) party outsiders winning party nominations
3) media weeds out candidates, not party leaders
4) raise $ from individuals and interest groups, not just parties
5) well-funded candidates have upper hand, not party organizations

            E. third-party movements in Texas

                1) Raza Unida (1970s)

                2) Libertarians (1990s)

                3) Ross Perot

III. The State Party Organization

            A. permanent — continuity between elections

                1) precinct chair — basic level in the party organization in Texas

                2) county chair and executive committee

                3) state chair and executive committee

            B. temporary — only during election years

                1) precinct convention — held on primary election day, must vote in primary

                    -select delegates to

                2) county or district convention

                    -select delegates to

                3) state convention

                    -select national convention delegates

                    -nominate electors for electoral college (presidential election years only)

                    -write party platform

            C. delegate selection systems

                1) primary elections used in Texas

                2) caucus — Iowa

 

Directory of US Political Parties

    US Political Parties

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Voting BEHAVIOR

I. Forms of Political Participation

   A. inactives, 22%

   B. voting specialists, 21%

   C. parochial participants, 4%

   D. campaigners, 15%

   E. communalists, 20%

   F. complete activists, 11%

II. Voter Turnout Data

    A. regional patterns

        1) northern and middle states—higher

        2) western and southern states—lower

        3) link turnout to political culture

    B. calculating turnout

        1) voting age population—all adults over 18

        2) registered voters—citizens registered to vote

        3) turnout based on registered voters higher than VAP

Voting is the principal means of political participation for most Texans.

Years of formal schooling is the single best socioeconomic predictor of the likelihood of an individual to vote.

The primary source of campaign news in the US is television.

In a pivotal state (a large, populous state with many electoral votes that a candidate must win to be elected),
presidential candidates almost have to rely on advertising.

Candidates try to sell themselves and their ideas on television since it is the surest means of reaching the largest number of people.

In an effort to affect large numbers of voters, candidates often rely on personal attacks on opponents ... negative campaigning.
We complain about negative campaigning, but it works!

Texans are most likely to learn political information about candidates from advertising materials prepared by the candidates.

III. Types of US Voters

1.   ideologues – can articulate a personal political ideology and connect it to specific candidate or party positions (12%)

2.   group beneficiaries – vote based solely on groups they like or groups they dislike (42%)

3.   fair / foul weather – vote only when they believe times are very good or very bad (24%)

4.  no issue content – votes are totally disconnected from any ideological or issue content but rather are based either on habitually voting for a specific party or person or based on candidate’s personality, appearance or etc.

IV. Low Voter Turnout in Texas

       A. current registration laws

           1) citizen—many immigrants in Texas cannot vote

           2) 18 years old

           3) 30-day registration deadline (longer than most states)

       B. historical barriers

           1) $1.75 poll tax — a device used in Texas to prevent many lower income persons from voting during much of the 20^th century

           2) annual registration required

           3) white primaries—in one-party state determine winner of general election

           4) property requirements for local elections

           5) women’s suffrage

       C. unique social factors in Texas that lower turnout

           1) higher poverty rates

           2) large minority population

           3) large immigrant population

           4) lower than average educational levels

           5) lower than average age

       D. lack of two-party competition

           1) one-party Democratic from end of Reconstruction until 1970s

           2) same case in most former Confederate states

           3. reapportionment

TEXAS CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS 2008

       E. traditional/individual culture

       F. staggered local elections

Project Vote Smart - Texas

Vote: The Machinery of Democracy

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Campaigns & Elections

General Election - an election to fill public offices

Primary Election - an election prior to the general election in which party voters select the candidates who will run on each party's ticket. Primaries are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders.

Electoral College - group of representatives that formally elects the President and the Vice President. (elector - a person who elects someone else, college - a decision-making group such as the College of Cardinals, which elects the pope) The number of electors from each state is equal to the sum of the state's Senators and Representatives in the Congress. The District of Columbia received the right to be represented by electors in 1961 with the ratification of the 23rd Amendment. Today, the Electoral College has 538 representatives. The Founding Fathers rejected the idea of direct elections. This was, of course, a time when communication and travel were difficult and there were no national parties. In the first presidential election, George Washington and John Adams were elected President and Vice President respectively by the Electoral College. There was no popular vote. The power to determine the method of choosing electors belongs to the states. Generally, the parties select the slate of electors, who are then chosen by popular vote. The electors assemble in their respective state capitals on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December. According to the Constitution, the electors may exercise their own discretion in voting, but in practice all the votes in a given state go to the presidential candidate who has received the plurality of the popular vote. The candidate who becomes the President must win at least 270 electoral votes. Some have proposed replacing the Electoral College with a system of direct elections. Such proposals would require amending the Constitution. A system of direct elections would not only reduce the power of the two major political parties, but would also reduce the importance of the states in the electoral process.

US Electoral College

Fair Vote

270 To Win

Atlas of US Presidential Elections

Electoral College

Presidential  Election

Election Glossary

I. Ballot Rules

   A. types of ballots

        1) party column - lists all candidates of a party under the party name

also called Indiana ballot

more straight ticket voting

voting for candidates who are all from the same party

        2) office block - lists all candidates for an office under the office

also called Massachusetts ballot

more split ticket voting

voting for candidates of different parties for various offices in the same election

        3) hybrid ballot

   B. access

       1) independent candidate - petition signed by 1% of voters in last governor election

       2) petition signers must be registered voters who did not vote in a primary

       3) write-in candidates - must declare candidacy for votes to count

   C. minor parties - between 5% and 19% of vote for statewide office

       1) must hold nominating conventions, but not primary elections

       2) slip below 5% for statewide office, lose ballot status

II. Primary Elections - for parties receiving more than 20% of vote for statewide office

    A. types of primaries

1) open

2) closed - Texas primaries are classified as closed where the voter signifies party membership by voting in a primary

3) nonpartisan

4) blanket

    B. open vs. closed primaries

1) raiding or crossover voting - more common in open primary

    C. runoff primary - for a primary nomination in TX, candidate must receive majority of popular vote

1) mostly in south, vestige of one-party Democratic rule

2) no crossover voting from primary to runoff primary

    D. presidential primary - primary picks delegates to the presidential nominating conventions

III. Miscellaneous

      A. 1965 Voting Rights Act

          1) preclearance

          2) Spanish ballots for areas with more than 20% Spanish speakers

      B. absentee ballot—soldiers mostly

      C. early voting 22 days before election, open to all voters

      D. upper-class bias in early voting?

IV. Modern Campaigns

     A. old system

         1) local campaigns, limited statewide media

         2) tell each county what they want to hear, suit message to each venue

     B. new system

         1) mass media, same message

         2) speak in sound bites

         3) campaign ads

             -feel good

             -sainthood

             -good old boy

             -bashers

     C. role of consultants

         1) sell candidate as a product, package the candidate

         2) image and message, not the issues

     D. role of money

1) Any citizen can contribute to a campaign except those with federal government contracts.

2) Foreigners with no permanent US residency are prohibited from contributing to any campaign.

3) Cash contributions over $100 are prohibited, no matter what their origin.

4) No candidate can accept an anonymous contribution that is more than $50.

5) Corporations, labor unions, national banks & federally chartered corporations are prohibited from contributing to federal campaigns.

6) PACs operated by foreign-owned corporations may contribute as long as Americans are the only contributors to the PAC.

7) Minors are prohibited from contributing to federal candidates & committees of political parties.

     E. role of the PAC

1) political action committee - common term for a committee set up to raise & spend money to elect & defeat candidates

2) most PACs represent ideological, business or labor interests

3) can’t buy an election

4) can buy access

5) late train financing—post election fund-raising especially if PAC supported loser

Bipartisan Campaign Finance Act of 2002

SUPER PACs IN 2012

Useful Websites

History of Campaign Commercials

Museum of the Moving Image

Truth or Fiction

Annenberg Political Fact Check

Democracy Net

Project Vote Smart

A complete list of candidates as well as all voting rules and regulations … and probably a list of polling places is at www.sos.state.tx.us.

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Copyright © 1996 Amy S. Glenn
Last updated: 17 May 2012