ECON 2301 UNIT 5

It is the 4th quarter of 2009. You are part of an economic think tank -- EcoCon -- whose analyses of the economy are widely valued. Recently the CEO of a large multinational corporation approached EcoCon and asked for an in-depth analysis of the current state of the US economy. The CEO and his board are considering major (but classified) changes to the corporation. Whether or not they proceed with those changes depends greatly on the current US economic situation so EcoCon's analysis of the economy must be as accurate and detailed as possible. To undertake the task, EcoCon has turned to its number one analyst - you.

At the top of this page is an Activity Resources link. That page contains all of the economic indicators you currently have available. I realize the data I'm giving you are not current but I do not want you to analyze current data. It's too easy to turn on a financial show on MSNBC or etc and copy someone else's analysis of current data. I want you to analyze the data given ... pretending those data are current data.

Look at the economic data available on the Activity Resources page. As you are looking at the data, think about the following questions.

Generally, in what ways can the data you have available be useful? For example, how might light-weight vehicle sales be useful?

Do you have available data that aren't useful? What and why not?

Are you missing data that would make your task easier? What and how?

Acknowledging the data you don't have and concentrating on the data that are important to your analysis, what can you say about the current state of the US economy? Be as specific as possible.

How confident are you in your analysis?

What warnings, if any, might you give the CEO concerning your analysis?

One Note: You don't know which CEO and corporation have requested the analysis, nor in what economic activity the corporation is engaged. You also do not know what kinds of changes the CEO and board are considering. Those things don't matter to your analysis. Your goal is to provide the CEO an in-depth analysis of the current state of the US economy that is as accurate and detailed as possible using the data provided. Knowing your "customer's" details is not necessary to your analysis.

Your analysis should be written for the CEO -- not for me -- and your writing should reflect an awareness of your audience. Please be careful to use correct spelling and grammar. Your analysis should provide an in-depth look at the state of the US economy reflected in the data made available to you. At the least, it should address the following areas.

a description of the current state of the US economy with as much detail and specificity at possible using the data available (Do not include data that are not useful simply for the sake of including them.)

any positive or potentially positive sectors highlighted by the data

any negative or potentially negative sectors highlighted by the data

your level of confidence in your analysis (for example, "I am extremely confident in the validity of the preceding analysis given ..." or "Because the data involving X is not available, I am only mildly confident that my analysis of ..."), including:
a. specific missing data (if any) that would have been important to your analysis and why/how they would have been important
b. any warnings about your analysis that you might feel it necessary to give

specific and detailed connections to course content

Be careful to address all of the topics you are asked to cover in your analysis ... be thorough and specific. If your answer is only a couple of brief paragraphs, you probably haven't been very thorough or specific.

By the deadline shown in the Course Schedule on the main page of the syllabus: